Ukraine Update: Russia’s river-crossing debacle is beyond belief

It’s mentioned the definition of madness is doing the identical factor again and again whereas anticipating a distinct consequence. If that’s the case … Russia qualifies. 

We noticed it within the early days of the struggle in Hostomel airport northwest of Kyiv. Russia made an unsupported airborne touchdown on the bottom. Acquired worn out. Tried it once more. Similar consequence. There might have been a 3rd try, however the airport wasn’t captured till the spearhead of Russia’s assault, on the bottom, arrived a couple of days later.

We’re presently seeing it on Snake Island, of “Russia warship, go fuck your self” fame. Over the previous week, Russian forces have been worn out a number of occasions (here, here, here, and here), and but final night time we noticed Russian troops touchdown there once again. (Russia state media tried to claim that it was Ukrainians who had been defeated on the island … utilizing the Ukrainian armed forces video (with their emblem on the highest proper nook) that includes the Bayraktar TB-2 drone interface, of which Russia has none. The destruction of the ship, when Ukraine has no navy, was a pleasant contact of hilarity.)

However nothing is as dramatic because the saga of the riverside crossing at Bilohorivka, the place Russia didn’t simply endure one disastrous river-crossing try, however three of them over the previous few days. 

Rubizhne, prime proper, was captured by Russia this week. Severodonetsk, on the fitting, is presently hell on earth, Russia’s present primary goal, being hit on three sides and below relentless months-long bombardment. As I famous earlier, Severodonetsk is on the north side of the river, so its Ukrainian defenders can, if wanted, retreat throughout the river to Lysychansk, the place the river offers pure safety. 

Provided that Russia will ultimately must cross the river, they clearly thought, why not now, permitting them to utterly encompass Severodonetsk, reducing off its defenders, and short-circuiting any fall again positions in Lysychansk. Bilohorivka was such an apparent place to make the try, that this Ukrainian military engineer claimed to have guessed it forward of time (account is unconfirmed, however a lot of it checks out). 

Russia made its first effort Could 8, and it was totally decimated, destroying a number of dozen automobiles. The bridge lay half-sunk. 

Russian command and management construction is very centralized, giving native commanders zero capability to deviate from said orders. So if excessive command mentioned “get to Bilohorivka,” properly, who was to say one thing like, “Guys, Ukraine has our quantity, possibly we should always search for a brand new place to cross?” Nah, giving native commanders, or any commanders for that matter, the reward of “free pondering and initiative” would possibly result in a navy coup. Finest to maintain them silly. Therefore … attempt quantity 2: 

You’ll be able to see the remnants of that first bridge simply above it, both utterly submerged or towed away in the course of the second try. Extra charred automobiles had been added to the checklist. 

Then somebody from Moscow or Belgorod known as and screamed, “do now we have Bilohorivka but?” And for the reason that reply was no, then yeah, sigh, there they went once more. 

The open supply intelligence (OSINT) crowd received to counting the harm, or no less than, what might be decided from drone footage. Simply photograph after photograph tagged like this: 

The automobile rely retains rising because the OSINT people discover extra automobiles amongst the wreckage. The most recent? 82.

These 82 automobiles embody eight within the river. The tally contains 14 tanks and 62 infantry combating automobiles. A Russian battalion tactical group (BTG) has 10 tanks and 40 IFVs, however there’s no such factor as a full-strength BTG in Ukraine. Doubtless by no means was. So Russia simply misplaced two BTGs price of troops making an attempt to make the identical compromised river crossing three occasions. Are you able to think about the drone operator calling it in? 

Drone operator: ”One other crossing!”

Artillery hearth route: “Shit! What are the coordinates?”

Drone operator: “Uh, identical ones!”

Artillery hearth route: “Ha! Okay, I actually thought you had been kidding the second time! That was loopy. However severely, what are the brand new coordinates?”

That engineer I linked to above claims 1,500 useless, citing “rumors.” That will recommend two practically full-strength BTGs, so is sort of definitely overstated. InformNapalm, which has been protecting the struggle since 2014 and has sources inside Ukrainian intelligence, claims that solely 65 of 550 Russians making an attempt the crossing survived. Whereas ~490 useless appears believable, solely 550 Russians making an attempt the crossing appears low. A single BTG would have 600-1,000 troopers, so 550 would solely employees one undermanned BTG. 

Russia has 22 BTGs on this axis, so on this ill-fated multi-effort river-crossing debacle, it has misplaced practically 10% of its whole combating pressure. However hey, why cease once they’re so near succeeding? Right here’s hoping they’re silly sufficient to offer it a fourth shot. 

And should you suppose I’m joking, from that InformNapalm report: 

After [the third attempt], different servicemen of the brigade started to write down “refusal”, however the zampolits [political commissar] tried to intimidate them with jail phrases and exert psychological stress.

Additionally, InformNapalm sources report that they noticed a automobile on this route right now, which is visually similar to the cell level of psychological work of the Russian Armed Forces. In all probability for the psychological remedy of the servicemen of the brigade, which suffered heavy losses.

If that report is right, it means Russia is actually attempting to pressure its troopers to offer it one more shot. Hopefully these troopers select properly—jail appears far preferable than no matter destiny met the poor souls on these three bridging makes an attempt.