Ukraine update: Something *big* is happening, as the Battle of the Izyum Salient begins

With unconfirmed reviews that Ukraine has pushed Russia largely out of its territory north of Kharkiv, we’ve been speculating the place Ukraine would counter subsequent—towards the railhead northeast of Kharkiv in Vovchansk, or the the logistical hub at Kupiansk, the place three main rail strains join. Each these places would lower off the circulate of provides to the Izyum salient and Russia’s 22 battalion tactical teams (BTGs) within the pocket—the largest concentration of Russian forces wherever in Ukraine. 

Ukraine took a take a look at each of these essential logistical facilities, after which determined to hit the salient instantly as a substitute. 

NASA FIRMS satellite data, designed to trace forest fires, provides us an ideal indication of the path of fight: 

The woods to the west of Izyum, the place any Ukrainian counteroffensive would originate, are lit. It’s taking place. 

Additionally word how, east of Izyum, the road of fireplace precisely follows the north financial institution of the Donets River—these are both Ukraine’s final positions on that financial institution (simply Lyman and Severodonetsk at this level), or Russian forces who’ve reached the waterline being shelled by Ukrainian artillery. 

We will even see the large artillery barrage at Russia’s ill-fated Bilohorivka river crossing attempt. Should you haven’t learn my story on Bilohorivka but, I extremely suggest it. It could be probably the most unbelievable story of the warfare. In the meantime, these fires north of Kharkiv are on newly liberated Ukrainian territory, which implies Russia is firing artillery on these positions both to decelerate their advance, or just out of punitive anger. A lot of Russia’s army technique seems to be a manifestation of Vladimir Putin’s aggrieved, irrational rage. 

Again to the Battle of the Izyum Salient, Russian telegram claims 5 Ukrainian brigades are shifting in on Izyum from the north, seeking to instantly lower off provide strains to the majority of the Russian forces within the salient. That will be the equal of 10-15 Russian BTGs which appears … fantastical. Given how effectively Ukraine has fought, Russians could also be mythifying them so they appear 10 ft tall and 3 times their quantity. However for context, a Ukrainian brigade is round 1,600 troops and 200 armored automobiles. If these reviews are right, we’re speaking about 1,000 armored automobiles, and a metric buttload of artillery, raining on Russian positions. Ukraine had 20 brigades pre-war, with one other 4 in reserve, that are probably already in motion. Extra are being created from reservists, however there’s no indication they’ve needed to be fielded simply but. So 5 brigades could be an enormous dedication of forces. 

No matter their precise measurement (and I do hope it’s 5 brigades), these Russian sources on telegram additionally say Ukraine has crossed the Donets for the assault. So if Ukraine is crossing the Donets to assault Izyum’s provide strains, then this looks as if a logical place to take action: 

And that NASA FIRMS map definitely helps the notion of ongoing operations each in that pocket, and on the east aspect of the Donets within the pink (contested) territory simply west of Izyum. 

Keep in mind, Ukraine doesn’t announce operations prematurely. FIRMS imagery over the previous a number of days, we are able to really see the counter-offensive started on Might 10-11:

Russia deserted Kharkiv as a result of it had no reserves left. Ukrainian normal employees and the Pentagon have mentioned Russia has 19 BTGs in reserve in Belgorod, so why weren’t they rushed to Kharkiv to defend their provide strains? If there’s something left in Russia, it’s probably shattered remnants and troops refusing to deploy or redeploy.

Now, with Russia already at its limits, Ukraine is taking direct goal on the largest focus of Russian forces in Ukraine. 

Guys, 20-25% of Russia’s whole Military is in that pocket.

One thing large is going on.

I imply large, as in war-altering. 

We had been Izyum’s provide hubs in Kupiansk and Vochansk. Ukraine goes straight for the jugular as a substitute.